DISCLOSURE DAY
– What science says ?
Commentary by Lauren Sgro, Program Manager for the “Exoplanet Transits” program at Unistellar at the SETI Institute.
IF CONTACT HAPPENED TOMORROW: WHAT WOULD ACTUALLY HAPPEN ?
Movies about alien invasions imagine secrecy, panic, and instant military responses.
Reality is simpler: There is currently no official global protocol for extraterrestrial contact.
What exists instead is a mix of scientific procedures, international treaties, and existing crisis systems.
| Question | What science says | Sources |
| A signal is detected. What happens first? | Immediate public announcements are off the table. Newly updated protocols mandate rigorous, independent verification by multiple organizations using completely different instruments before any public disclosure. The main goal here is to rule out false positives and get ahead of viral rumors, AI-generated deepfakes, and rampant misinformation before a solid scientific consensus is reached |
IAA Post-Detection Declaration of Principles (Ratified June 2026); IAA SETI Permanent Committee (Pr. Michael Garrett) |
| Does international law already cover extraterrestrial contact? | Nothing is stated about extraterrestrial contact. Yet, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty establishes the general space law with the following principles : peaceful use of space, prohibits national appropriation, and makes states responsible for their space activities. | Outer Space Treaty (1967); UNOOSA |
| Do governments have an alien response plan? | Most countries have no dedicated extraterrestrial response plan. In case of threat, existing emergency systems would likely be used instead: crisis management structures, civil protection networks, emergency alerts, and government coordination mechanisms | The US’ plans for asteroids, national emergencies, and unidentified aerial phenomena (no publicly known plan for confirmed extraterrestrial contact) ; French civil security documentation (SAIP) |
| What is the biggest challenge? | Beyond the massive legal void of how humanity should interact with non-human intelligence, the biggest hurdle is our current information ecosystem. Handling the instantaneous, viral spread of a signal in the age of 24/7 social media—while protecting researchers from intense media pressure, doxxing, and online harassment—is the new scientific frontier | SETI Institute; Pr. Michael Garrett (2026); International space law literature |
HOW LIKELY IS EXTRATERRESTRIAL LIFE TO EXIST?
The current scientific answer is :
We now know many ingredients for life appear common, but we still have no direct evidence elsewhere. The search for extraterrestrial intelligence may not depend on finding a message. It may depend on recognizing the technological footprint that advanced civilizations leave behind.
The numbers changed dramatically
• > 6,000 confirmed exoplanets discovered so far
• likely hundreds of billions of planets in our galaxy
• zero confirmed detections of extraterrestrial life
When analyzing a planet for habitability, scientists use two main options for gathering data. They rely on remote observations, using tools like telescopes, spectrometers, and spectrographs to study the planet from a distance. On planets of the solar system, on-site exploration is the second option. If they can get closer, sending hardware like rovers, drills, cameras, and miniature laboratories to the surface could be useful.
Scientists are generally looking for three broad ingredients to determine whether extraterrestrial life could exist on a planet:
| Ingredient | Why it matters | What scientists look for |
| Liquid water | Enables essential chemical reactions |
Oceans, ice, habitable zones |
| Organic chemistry | Provides building blocks for life | Carbon molecules, amino acids, prebiotic compounds |
| Energy sources |
Powers biological processes |
Starlight, geothermal activity, chemical reactions |
“Then why haven’t we found anything?”
This is known as the Fermi Paradox:
If life should be common… …where is everybody?
Possible explanations range from life being extremely rare to civilizations being short-lived or simply too distant.
Through programs like UNITE, NASA looks mainly for gas giants, observed in detail using networks of connected Unistellar telescopes operated by citizen scientists. Our telescopes’ sensitivity allow our Community to also detect Oddball Rocky planets, which may challenge existing theories.
If advanced civilizations exist, they may be detectable not through communication, but through the large-scale impact they have on their environment (technosignatures).
Sources: NASA Exoplanet Archive; UNITE program documentation; Fermi literature.
THE MATH OF ALIENS
In 1961, astronomer Frank Drake proposed a simple question:
How many civilizations could exist in our galaxy right now?
The theory he proposed became the famous Drake Equation.
N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L
The equation combines factors such as:
- the rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligence (R*)
- how many of those stars with planet systems (fP), a factor that our citizen science program can help uncover*
- how many of these planets, per planet system, could host life (ne), a factor that our citizen science program can help uncover*
- The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears (fl)
- The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. (fi)
- The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that produces detectable signs of their existence (fc)
- how long civilizations could survive there (L).
*https://help.unistellar.com/hc/en-us/articles/12056360257948-Citizen-Science-Missions
The challenge?
We only know a few of these variables and we are improving estimates for stars and planets, yet we know almost nothing about:
- how often life appears
- how often intelligence emerges
- how long civilizations last
The biggest mystery: L
The final factor, L, measures how long technological civilizations survive.
Hundreds of years? Millions?
If civilizations typically destroy themselves quickly, even a galaxy full of life could appear silent.
The Rare Earth Question
Finding an Earth-sized planet may not be enough.
Earth benefited from unusual conditions:
- long-term climate stability
- geological activity
- protective magnetic field
- a very large Moon stabilizing Earth’s axis
Some scientists therefore argue that complex life may require many rare coincidences.
Which means habitable does not necessarily mean inhabited.
Sources: Drake (1961); The Astrophysical Journal (2020); Rare Earth hypothesis literature.
Astronomy is evolving. By connecting citizen scientists globally, programs like Unistellar × NASA are transforming how we explore the cosmos. While the search for habitable worlds, formalized by the Drake Equation, remains the primary quest, our scope extends further: studying diverse planetary systems, including gas giants, is essential.
This approach allows us to refine our understanding of planet formation and migration, offering vital clues into how our own solar system emerged.
RESEARCHING LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE FROM YOUR BACKYARD
A single telescope connected to a larger network can help unlock a deeper understanding of the Universe.
- asteroid tracking
- exoplanet transits
- transient events
- planetary defense
Citizen science already operates globally
- Italy
- France
- Japan
- Australia
- USA
- New Zealand
- Portugal
- Germany
- Maldives
Astronomy is entering a new era of collaborative discovery. Through global networks of citizen astronomers, observations from around the world help validate exoplanet candidates and support professional research. The recent confirmation of a temperate Jupiter with contributions from the Unistellar community highlights the growing role of citizen science in modern astronomy.
Contribute to real science such as +25 000 users from Unistellar’s Community!
Sources
Scientific publications
[2408.08513] Arecibo Wow! I: An Astrophysical Explanation for the Wow! Signal
Broadband SETI: a New Strategy To Find Nearby Alien Civilizations | Cool Papers
Scientific publications with Unistellar users about exoplanets
Websites
Beyond Disclosure Day: The Real-World Protocols
Citizen Astronomers Help Confirm New Temperate Jupiter