DISCLOSURE DAY — What science says?
Commentary by Lauren Sgro, Program Manager for the “Exoplanet Transits” program at Unistellar at the SETI Institute.
IF CONTACT HAPPENED TOMORROW: WHAT WOULD ACTUALLY HAPPEN?
Movies about alien invasions imagine secrecy, panic, and instant military responses.
Reality is simpler: There is currently no official global protocol for extraterrestrial contact. What exists instead is a mix of scientific procedures, international treaties, and existing crisis systems.
| Question What science says Sources | ||
|---|---|---|
| A signal is detected. What happens first? | Immediate public announcements are off the table. Newly updated protocols mandate rigorous, independent verification by multiple organizations using completely different instruments before any public disclosure. The main goal is to rule out false positives and get ahead of viral rumors, AI-generated deepfakes, and rampant misinformation before a solid scientific consensus is reached. | IAA Post-Detection Declaration of Principles (Ratified June 2026); IAA SETI Permanent Committee (Pr. Michael Garrett). |
| Does international law already cover extraterrestrial contact? | Nothing is stated about extraterrestrial contact. Yet, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty establishes the general framework of space law with the following principles: peaceful use of space, prohibition of national appropriation, and states’ responsibility for their space activities. | Outer Space Treaty (1967); UNOOSA |
| Do governments have an alien response plan? | Most countries have no dedicated extraterrestrial response plan. In case of threat, existing emergency systems would likely be used instead: crisis management structures, civil protection networks, emergency alerts, and government coordination mechanisms. | The US’ plans for asteroids, national emergencies, and unidentified aerial phenomena (no publicly known plan for confirmed extraterrestrial contact); French civil security documentation (SAIP) |
| What is the biggest challenge? | Beyond the massive legal void of how humanity should interact with non-human intelligence, the biggest hurdle is our current information ecosystem. Handling the instantaneous, viral spread of a signal in the age of 24/7 social media — while protecting researchers from intense media pressure, doxxing, and online harassment — is the new scientific frontier. | SETI Institute; Pr. Michael Garrett (2026); International space law literature. |
HOW LIKELY IS EXTRATERRESTRIAL LIFE TO EXIST?
The current scientific answer is: We now know many ingredients for life appear common, but we still have no direct evidence elsewhere. The search for extraterrestrial intelligence may not depend on finding a message. It may depend on recognizing the technological footprint that advanced civilizations leave behind.
The numbers changed dramatically
- > 6,000 confirmed exoplanets discovered so far
- Likely hundreds of billions of planets in our galaxy
- Zero confirmed detections of extraterrestrial life
When analyzing a planet for habitability, scientists use two main approaches. They rely on remote observations, using tools like telescopes, spectrometers, and spectrographs to study the planet from a distance. For planets within our solar system, on-site exploration is the second option — sending hardware like rovers, drills, cameras, and miniature laboratories to the surface.
Scientists are generally looking for three broad ingredients to determine whether extraterrestrial life could exist on a planet:
Organic chemistryProvides building blocks for lifeCarbon molecules, amino acids, prebiotic compounds
| IngredientWhy it mattersWhat scientists look for | ||
|---|---|---|
| Liquid water | Enables essential chemical reactions | Oceans, ice, habitable zones |
| Energy sources | Powers biological processes | Starlight, geothermal activity, chemical reactions |
Then why haven’t we found anything?
This is known as the Fermi Paradox: If life should be common… where is everybody?
Possible explanations range from life being extremely rare to civilizations being short-lived or simply too distant.
Through programs like UNITE, NASA looks mainly for gas giants, observed in detail using networks of connected Unistellar telescopes operated by citizen scientists. Our telescopes’ sensitivity also allows our Community to detect Oddball Rocky planets, which may challenge existing theories.
If advanced civilizations exist, they may be detectable not through communication, but through the large-scale impact they have on their environment — known as technosignatures.
Sources: NASA Exoplanet Archive; UNITE program documentation; Fermi literature.
THE MATH OF ALIENS
In 1961, astronomer Frank Drake proposed a simple question: How many civilizations could exist in our galaxy right now? The theory he proposed became the famous Drake Equation.
N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L
The equation combines the following factors:
- R* — The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life
- fp — The fraction of those stars that have planetary systems (a factor our citizen science program can help uncover*)
- ne — The number of planets, per planetary system, that could potentially host life (a factor our citizen science program can help uncover*)
- fl — The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears
- fi — The fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges
- fc — The fraction of civilizations that develop technology producing detectable signs of their existence
- L — How long such civilizations survive and remain detectable
* https://help.unistellar.com/hc/en-us/articles/12056360257948
The challenge?
We only know a few of these variables. While we are improving estimates for stars and planets, we know almost nothing about:
- How often life appears
- How often intelligence emerges
- How long civilizations last
The biggest mystery: L
The final factor, L, measures how long technological civilizations survive. Hundreds of years? Millions? If civilizations typically destroy themselves quickly, even a galaxy full of life could appear silent.
The Rare Earth Question
Finding an Earth-sized planet may not be enough. Earth benefited from unusual conditions:
- Long-term climate stability
- Geological activity
- A protective magnetic field
- A very large Moon stabilizing Earth’s axis
Some scientists therefore argue that complex life may require many rare coincidences. Which means habitable does not necessarily mean inhabited.
Sources: Drake (1961); The Astrophysical Journal (2020); Rare Earth hypothesis literature.
Astronomy is evolving. By connecting citizen scientists globally, programs like Unistellar × NASA are transforming how we explore the cosmos. While the search for habitable worlds — formalized by the Drake Equation — remains the primary quest, our scope extends further: studying diverse planetary systems, including gas giants, is essential. This approach allows us to refine our understanding of planet formation and migration, offering vital clues into how our own solar system emerged.
FROM THE DRAKE EQUATION TO YOUR BACKYARD
These exciting questions have inspired generations of teenagers and future scientists since Carl Sagan first brought the wonder of the cosmos into living rooms around the world. They were also at the heart of Unistellar’s founding vision: to give people everywhere the ability to take part in some of the most exciting research in modern astronomy.
Astronomy is evolving. For most of history, contributing to the search for other worlds required access to giant observatories, professional instruments, and remote mountaintops. Today, something extraordinary is becoming possible: a family can step into the backyard at night, point a Unistellar telescope toward a distant star, and take part in real scientific research.
Many Unistellar users have already become co-authors of peer-reviewed scientific publications. One recent example is the confirmation of TOI-4465 b, a Jupiter-like giant planet orbiting a distant star. This long-period giant planet was first discovered from a single TESS transit, then characterized through a global follow-up campaign that included Unistellar telescope users.
Every month, hundreds of Unistellar users — some observing on their own, others sharing the experience with their children — turn their telescopes toward the stars from their own backyards. Together, they take part in the search for the next new world, and regularly see their observations contribute to publications in leading scientific journals.
Sources — Scientific Publications
- [2408.08513] Arecibo Wow! I: An Astrophysical Explanation for the Wow! Signal
- [2603.07333] Broadband Searches for Extraterrestrial Technological Intelligence: a New Strategy To Find Nearby Alien Civilizations
- Project Hephaistos – II. Dyson sphere candidates from Gaia DR3, 2MASS, and WISE — Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Scientific Publications with Unistellar Users — Exoplanets
- [2506.20019] Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT ‘EM) Survey. VI: Confirmation of a Long-Period Giant Planet Discovered with a Single TESS Transit
- The Unistellar Exoplanet Campaign: Citizen Science Results and Inherent Education Opportunities — IOPscience
- Utilizing Small Telescopes Operated by Citizen Scientists for Transiting Exoplanet Follow-up — IOPscience